(Article was written on November 11, 2024, but never got around to archiving it here)
After the Nuggets started this season with a 2-3 record, I saw a lot of people not taking the team seriously and saying their run as Contenders might be done. After beating the OKC Thunder last week with both Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon out of the rotation and the team now on a 5 game win streak, I have to say the Nuggets might be the team to beat in the Western Conference this season.
The reason I say that is because the Nuggets have without a doubt been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA during this early portion of the season. The Nuggets have averaged the fourth most points per game, and have done so while shooting the 9th best field goal percentage in the league. The Nuggets have the 2nd best three point percentage in the league also. If there is any caveat to that, I will say that they do attempt the least amount of three pointers of any team in the NBA, so be aware of that. They’ve also been great at sharing the ball, as they’re currently averaging the most assists per game of any team in the league. They’re also the fifth best team in the NBA at grabbing offensive rebounds, which probably explains why they’re averaging the fourth most points per game in the NBA while only shooting the 9th best percentage, as they’re grabbing their own misses.
So their offense has looked great, but I do need to bring up the fact that their defense has been pretty up and down. I say that to say while they’re a great offensive rebounding team, in terms of defensive rebounding, they’re not top 10 in the league, as they hold the 12th spot in that statistical category. With that said, it shouldn’t surprise you to hear that the Nuggets have the 18th ranked defense in the NBA. They’ve actually been very good at preventing their opponents from scoring off turnovers, and also preventing their opponents from getting second chance points, as they’re top 11 in the NBA in both categories. Defending the fast break, and locking down the paint however, have been their biggest troubles. The Nuggets have allowed the 8th most fast break points and 3rd most points in the paint so far this season. That may be surprising to hear, especially since the Nuggets had the 8th best defensive rating in the league last season, but it’s really not surprising when you realize this next statistic.
If we look at the defensive stats for only the starting lineups of each NBA team, the Nuggets starters have the third worst defensive rating in the league this season. Despite many people criticizing the Nuggets bench, and most specifically Russell Westbrook, the Nuggets bench has the 11st best efficiency rating among all benches in the league. The starters defensive struggles aren’t a total shock though, as last season the Nuggets’ starters had the 6th worst rating in the NBA. Last Season, the Nuggets were simply unlucky though, as the team’s bench was also terrible, coming in with the 7th worst efficiency rating amongst other bench units. The Nuggets are also giving up the 7th most points to their opponents this season.
As mentioned before, the Nuggets have won 5 straight games and their last three games have been impressive beating the Thunder, Heat and Mavericks. What’s been super impressive is the team is doing so without Aaron Gordon healthy. Aaron Gordon is of course a huge part of this team and played a large role in the Nuggets 2023 championship win, but this season when he played, he was making as big an impact as ever. Prior to the game where Gordon got injured against the Raptors, Gordon was averaging the most points, rebounds and assists that he’s averaged during his tenure with the Nuggets. Gordon’s also shooting the best three point percentage of his entire Nuggets tenure this season. If we look at how the team looked in minutes with Gordon off versus on the court, the team had a +12 net rating with Gordon on the court, versus -12 without Gordon off the court. That certainly shows how much of a positive impact Gordon was having on the Nuggets this season.
There’s three other players I wanna touch on also, the first is Russell Westbrook. I really think Westbrook gets too much criticism placed on him. While he had some struggles in the Nuggets recent win vs the Mavericks, Westbrook’s prior three games were great. Westbrook scored 21 points on 6 of 10 shooting, 29 points on 10 for 15 shooting and despite only 6 points scored against the Heat, Westbrook only attempted 5 shots. Westbrook was able to still contribute positively with his 10 assists that game. While I would like to see him be a bit more consistent, I do think this could be him finally starting to get comfortable with his new teammates.
The other two guys are Peyton Watson and Christian Braun. Both players are in their third seasons in the league now, and are without a doubt having the best seasons of their careers. Braun is averaging career highs in every statistical category. With him now being a full time starter and averaging 35 minutes per game, he looks like the player the Nuggets were looking for when they drafted him out of the University of Kansas. Peyton Watson has filled in the starting lineup very well ever since Aaron Gordon’s injury. Watson is averaging career highs in minutes, shot attempts and points per game this season. Not to mention a career high in offensive rebounds as well, which makes sense with how we spoke on the Nuggets as a team cleaning up the offensive glass great. It’s very easy to see that Watson played a factor in that. Watson also just turned 22 years old in September, so I don’t even think we’ve seen anything close to his best statistics and level of play yet, but that’s just my opinion.
But I say all of this to say that everybody has to keep an eye on the Nuggets this season. With Nikola Jokic leading the NBA in both rebounds and assists, and also averaging the 4th most points per game, you know what you’re getting from him. In terms of the rest of the Nuggets roster though, the team has had players in and out of the starting lineup, some very notable defensive struggles, yet they’ve somehow now won 5 straight games with now a 4 day break to relax and regroup before their next game.
One thing that might come back to bite the Nuggets is their bench depth. The Nuggets bench depth has thinned out gradually ever since they won the 2023 championship. Only 8 players saw the court in their win over the Thunder, and only 7 guys played over 10 minutes in their last two games. If the Nuggets can make some acquisitions before or at the NBA trade deadline, they can potentially solve some of their biggest flaws. I also think with both Kevin Durant and now Chet Holmgren set to miss multiple weeks of games with injuries for their respective teams, you have to watch out for the Nuggets to climb up in the Western Conference standings. If they maintain this level of play until Gordon comes back, you better watch out because they might end up right back up in one of the top 2 seeds of the Western Conference like they were over the previous two seasons.
SLOT 